Projections

Climate impacts almost all aspects of life in Papua New Guinea. Understanding the possible future climate of Papua New Guinea is important to inform desicion making when planning. Climate change projections found here show how Papua New Guinea's climate may change in the future. The information are obtained from global climate models (GCM's), data and reports that are available.  

A quick glimpse of what climate models are projecting about future climate change for Papua New Guinea;

  • El Niño and La Niña events will continue to occur in the future, but there is little consensus on whether  these events will change in intensity or frequency.
  • Annual mean temperatures and extremely high daily temperatures will continue to rise.
  • Average rainfall is projected to increase in most areas, along with more extreme rain events.
  • Droughts are projected to decline in frequency
  • Sea level will continue to rise.
  • Ocean acidification is expected to continue.
  • The risk of coral bleaching is expected to increase.
  • No changes in waves along the Coral Sea coast are projected, while on the northern coasts, December–March wave heights and periods are projected to decrease.
  • Tropical cyclones are projected to be less frequent but more intense.

 

A comprehensive set of climate change projections developed for Papua New Guinea using 18 GCM's  produced by CSIRO Australia under the Pacific Climate Change Program can be found on the Pacific Climate Science Website https://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org

Detailed information on Papua New Guinea's climate forecasts and information can be found here http://www.pngmet.gov.pg/